TRUNCATED-AT-ZERO COUNT DATA MODELS WITH PARTIAL OBSERVABILITY: AN APPLICATION TO THE FRESHWATER FISHING DEMAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

We extend the double-hurdle count data model to account for a joint decision in the first stage in which the individual jointly makes a decision about a participation in fishing and a site (region) selection decision. Contrary to the conventional the double-hurdle count data model, our model discriminates between the effects of non-participant and potential participants (e.g., potential participants are those who participated in fishing but may or may not take a trip to a specific site, the Southeastern U.S.) on the probability of taking a fishing trip.Consumer/Household Economics,

Forecasting Price Relationships among U.S Tree Nuts Prices

This paper investigates a vector auto regression model, using the Johansen cointegration technique, and the autoregressive integrated moving average time series models to determine the better model for forecasting US tree nut prices over the period 1992-2006. The Johansen contegration test shows lack of long run relationship among pecan, walnut, and almond prices. As such, only autoregressive integrated moving average-type models were used in forecasting U.S. nut prices.substitutability, cointegration, tree nuts, long-run equilibrium forecasting, Demand and Price Analysis, Production Economics,

An Analysis of Price Determination in the Sweet Cherry Markets of British Columbia, Washington, Oregon and California

Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis,

PRICE-INVENTORY RELATIONSHIP IN THE PECAN INDUSTRY: A STUDY OF LONG- AND SHORT-RUN EFFECTS WITH SEASONAL CONSIDERATION

Demand and Price Analysis,

Growth Expectations and Decision to Renovate a Golf Course: An Application of a Censored Model with the Simultaneity Test

Golf course renovation and expected business growth were examined. Endogeneity test on the renovation decision and a censored expected growth model rejected the hypothesis of simultaneity and decisions were modeled separately. Key determinants for both decisions were golf facility features, but not respondents' characteristics.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

APPLICATION OF HURDLE NEGATIVE BINOMIAL COUNT DATA MODEL TO DEMAND FOR BLACK BASS FISHING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

This paper identifies factors that influence the demand for a black bass fishing trip taken in the Southeastern U.S. using a double hurdle negative binomial count data model. The probability of fishing for a black bass is estimated in the first stage and the trip frequency for fishing a black bass is estimated in the second stage given that the individual has a positive probability towards undertaking a black bass fishing trip in the Southeast. The applied approach allows the decomposition of the effects of factors responsible for the decision of taking a fishing trip and the number of trips.Consumer/Household Economics,

Cointegration Between Prices of Pecans and Other Edible Nuts: Forecasting and Implications

Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis,

Testing For Seasonal Cointegration and Error Correction: The U.S. Pecan Price-Inventory Relationship

Using time series data we examine behavior of pecan prices and inventories at zero and seasonal frequencies, given results of seasonal cointegration tests. Both, seasonally unadjusted and adjusted quarterly data are used (1991-2002). Results suggest that, first, shelled and total pecan inventories and shelled pecan prices have common unit roots at both the non-seasonal and seasonal frequencies; second, there is no long run equilibrium between pecan prices and shelled or total inventories when unadjusted data are used. Finally, the speed of adjustments suggests pecan prices adjust to shocks in inventories and not the vice versa.Demand and Price Analysis,

SIMULATING IMPACT OF PECAN STORAGE TECHNOLOGY ON FARM PRICE AND GROWERSÂ’ INCOME

Pecan growers can increase income by storing pecans if economically feasible storage technology is available. The marginal conditions under which growers would store pecans were derived. Revenue changes due to storage and impact of storage on price variations were simulated, suggesting the price that growers could pay for new storage technology.Demand and Price Analysis,

MODELING PERENNIAL CROP SUPPLY: AN ILLUSTRATION FROM THE PECAN INDUSTRY

Two methodological approaches were applied to estimating the number of non-bearing trees in the absence of such date using data for the Southern USA pecan industry. The first approach distinguished between bearing and non-bearing phases of a tree life and directly estimated the number of non-bearing trees. The second focused on indirect estimating of the non-bearing tree number from changes in production. This approach relaxed the assumption of maintaining maximum yields for infinite period as used in earlier studies. Empirical applications used two data sets from the pecan industry. The comparison of empirical results suggested that the first method was more accurate than the alternative approach in predicting the number of newly planted trees over an extended period of time. Additional data collection will allow for further application of available methodology to the pecan industry.Non-bearing trees, Pecans, Tree crop, Tree yields, Volume produced, Demand and Price Analysis,